Daily News Roundup, 1/3/2008: Welcome to the Thunderdome

The day of the Iowa Thunderdome is here. Today is the day that the presidential election really begins, and it is shaping up to be a long one. Uncertainty rules in both parties, and no one is quite sure how things will shake out. Candidates have been beating the cold, unforgiving streets with abandon in the wild frenzy leading up to tonight, when some candidates will be made, some will hang on, and some will be broken. Welcome to Iowa.

You will hear many assertions that the caucus results will be about turnout, which essentially means that sheer force of will and resources can produce a win. It isn't the kind of resource rush that a massive ad buy can combat — it could truly be about feet on the streets and how each candidate has managed both their grassroots supporters and their retail, living room politics. The rule about turnout is the same in any kind of election — if more of your people show up to vote than anyone else's, you win.

I heard this yesterday and I wasn't sure it could be accurate, but it is apparently true: John Edwards took the turnout/retail thing to heart in a serious way and spent the last 36 hours on a non-stop tour of Iowa's kitchens and living rooms. The New York Times has what amounts to a liveblog of the Marathon along with a little bit of history about the Iowa all-nighter. Also, the campaign bus broke down just after the all-nighter started, which seems like something out of a movie.

Someone who is not pulling any all nighters and won't be doing any such thing is Fred Thompson. We've talked in varying degrees of assessment about Fred Thompson here, and while he has turned out to be largely inconsequential, I became a firm believer over the last several months that Fred could have been dangerous if he had tried to actually run for President. Now it seems as if his campaign is circling the drain, and he is planning to back McCain when he drops out after getting beaten soundly in Iowa.

Someone who is not likely to get beaten soundly in Iowa is Mike Huckabee, although if he keeps making comments like this, Republicans will never elect him:

Although he said there was “a fundamental difference between us” on issues of taxes and government spending, Mr. Huckabee said, “I have a great respect for Barack Obama. I think he’s a person who is trying to do in many ways what I hope I’m trying to do and that is to say let’s quit what I call ‘horizontal politics.’ Everything in this country is not left, right, liberal, conservative, Democrat, Republican. I think the country is looking for somebody who is vertical, who is thinking, ‘Let’s take America up and not down,’ and people will forgive you for being left or right if you go up.”

So now of course the speculation is about whether a fusion ticket might be possible. This idea was kicked around last time, and it didn't materialize. Recently, someone in my family asked me if I thought it was possible for a fusion ticket to happen this time and for years of partisan rancor to melt away in the warmth of the idea of, say, taking America up and not down. I gave the answer I used to give, pre-2004, about whether I thought my beloved Red Sox would win the World Series anytime soon. "Not in my lifetime," I said. "And not in yours, either." I believe my answer now as I did then, but you can see that I was plainly wrong before.

In Texas, there was plenty of filing news. Harris County District Attorney (and Republican) Chuck Rosenthal withdrew from the race at the last minute, for a veritable quagmire of reasons on display here.

The Dallas Morning News has an examination of what Rick Noriega's candidacy implies for Texas and the years of Republican dominance contained herein. The primary field is thicker than most of us had originally expected in that race: now three people other than Noriega are running for the Democratic nomination.

We'll have more news for you throughout the day. In the meantime, you may wish to ponder this possibility presented by John Zogby, of polling fame: maybe the Iowa caucus won't really tell us much at all.