(Not So) Great Expectations

Fred Thompson is riding the Low Expectations Express to pre-emptive debate victory. At this point he'll be way ahead if he shows up.

The Politico has the analysis accompanied by what is quite possibly the worst picture of Thompson I've ever seen. The debate is tomorrow night from Dearborn, Michigan, and will be two hours on the economy. Somehow I think the topic range will widen as the evening goes on and candidates find ways to tie taxes to terrorism and so forth, but this debate presents an opportunity for Thompson. He's got great national poll numbers. He raised plenty of money in the last quarter. Now the only question is whether he really wants the job.

Is it possible this is all a ploy, and setting the bar almost impossibly low for performance, campaign vigor, and coherence will translate into instance after instance of crushing primary victory? I don't think so. I admit that the bar has been set low and, if it is some sort of scheme and not just a case of Bad Candidate Syndrome, then it has been an artful deception.

This sort of thing only works once, though. It isn't as if, after the giant has awakened, he can go back to sleep and expect his next awakening to bring any sort of surprise with it. After that it just looks clumsy and willful. Here is an example of a guy running for President and making a hash of the campaign, or a guy playing coy, lying in wait to unleash policy directives and a whirlwind tour through early primary states, shaking hands and kissing babies all the way.

The Politico's Roger Simon cracks wise and offers the usual scathing review of Thompson's campaign. He also offers a scathing review of the perception of Thompson's campaign, which is a new angle. The part that interested me most was this:

Schwarzenegger knew people thought he was too stupid to be governor, and he knew he wasn’t. All he had to do was exceed their expectations. He did not have to be some technocratic, know-it-all genius. He just had to be reasonably bright.

And he was. Schwarzenegger surprised many by doing just fine in a televised debate in 2003, surged in the polls and won.

If Fred Thompson gives an unexpectedly good performance Tuesday — if he is reasonably bright and energetic — he could jump to the head of the pack.

Interesting comparison to be sure. We'll have to watch the debate and see how it goes.